处理七张扑克牌时计算的单对概率的异常概率结果

Question

背景：今天我想我会开始一个小项目来制作扑克牌模拟器。我设定的第一个任务是发牌甲板，并检查各种数字生成的概率反对公认的价值观。我检查的第一个这样的概率是单对概率——即生成（数值）被处理成一对的概率，给定作为输入的数字发出的牌数和发出的手数，每手牌从一个单独的洗牌甲板处理。卡片是从甲板的顶部。下面我展示了该程序的开头。我首先测试了数字生成的单对概率五张牌手。计算值在接受的单对概率的十分之一对于五张手牌（但总是高大约百分之一）：https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

但是，当我测试数值生成的单对概率时对于七张牌，我发现我的牌差了 4% 到 5% 接受值（例如，典型的计算值 = 0.47828；按照上述接受值 = 0.438）。我已经运行进行了多达十次的数值实验百万手交易。七的计算单对概率手牌稳定，与可接受值保持 4% 至 5% 的差距。不清楚为什么会这样。

问题：为什么会这样？我怀疑我的代码没有使用考虑到一些东西，但我无法检测到什么。 Python 代码如下。 . .

注意： 问题 31381901 与此类似。但在下面的代码中，重复计算的问题是通过将发牌手转换为一组来解决的，这将消除重复值，从而将组的大小（在 7 手牌的情况下）从 7 减少到 6。那减少表示一对。如果存在同种三，则该系列的大小将为 5，因为同种三中的三张牌中的两张将通过系列转换消除。

from random import shuffle

def make_deck():
    '''Make a 52 card deck of cards.  First symbol
    is the value, second symbol is the suit.  Concatenate
    both symbols together.
    Input:  None
    Output:  List
    '''
    value = ['A', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6', '7', '8', '9', 'T', 'J', 'Q', 'K']
    suit = ['C','H','S','D']
    deck = [j+i for j in value for i in suit]
    return deck


def shuffle_deck(deck, times_to_shuffle=7):
    '''Shuffle a deck of cards produced by make_deck().
    Default:  7 times.
    Input:  list, int
    Output:  list (modified in-place)
    '''
    for n in range(times_to_shuffle):
        shuffle(deck)


def test_for_single_pair(hand, cards_per_hand):
    '''Tests for presence of a single pair in 
    a dealt hand by converting the hand to a set.
    The set representation of a hand with a single
    pair will have one less member than the original
    hand.
    Input: list, int
    Output:  int
    '''
    hand_values_lst = [card[0] for card in hand]
    hand_values_set = set(hand_values_lst)
    set_size = len(hand_values_set)

    if set_size == (cards_per_hand - 1):
        return 1
    else:
        return 0


def deal_series_of_hands(num_hands,cards_per_hand):
    '''Deals a series of hands of cards and tests
    for single pairs in each hand.  Creates a deck
    of 52 cards, then begins dealing loop.  Shuffles
    deck thoroughly after each hand is dealt.
    Captures a list of the dealt hands that conform
    to the spec (i.e., that contain one pair each),
    for later debugging purposes
    Input:  int, int
    Output:  int, int, list
    '''

    deck = make_deck()
    single_pair_count = 0
    hand_capture = []

    for m in range(num_hands):
        shuffle_deck(deck)
        hand = deck[0:cards_per_hand]    #first cards dealt from the deck
        pair_count = test_for_single_pair(hand, cards_per_hand)
        if pair_count == 1:
            single_pair_count += pair_count
            hand_capture.append(hand)

    return (single_pair_count, num_hands, hand_capture)



cards_per_hand = 7   #User input parameter
num_hands = 50000    #user input parameter

single_pair_count, num_hands_dealt, hand_capture = deal_series_of_hands(num_hands, cards_per_hand)
single_pair_probability = single_pair_count/ num_hands_dealt
single_pair_str = 'Single pair probability (%d card deal; poker hands): '%(cards_per_hand)
print(single_pair_str, single_pair_probability)

Answer 1

如果这手牌包含一对，但也包含更高价值的单位，例如顺子或同花，您的代码仍将其视为一对，而概率文章则不会。

处理七张扑克牌时计算的单对概率的异常概率结果

Anomalous probability result for computed single pair probability when dealing seven card poker hands

python

simulation

poker

probability