障碍或零膨胀混合模型的置信区间
Confidence intervals for hurdle or zero inflated mixed models
我想在混合模型、零膨胀负二项式和障碍模型中计算 CI。我的障碍模型代码如下所示（x1，x2 连续，x3 分类）：
m1 <- glmmTMB(count~x1+x2+x3+(1|year/class),
data = bd, zi = ~x2+x3+(1|year/class), family = truncated_nbinom2,
)
我使用了 confint，得到了这些结果：
ci <- confint(m1,parm="beta_")
ci
2.5 % 97.5 % Estimate
cond.(Intercept) 1.816255e-01 0.448860094 0.285524861
cond.x1 9.045278e-01 0.972083366 0.937697401
cond.x2 1.505770e+01 26.817439186 20.094998772
cond.x3high 1.190972e+00 1.492335046 1.333164894
cond.x3low 1.028147e+00 1.215828654 1.118056377
cond.x3reg 1.135515e+00 1.385833853 1.254445909
class:year.cond.Std.Dev.(Intercept)2.256324e+00 2.662976154 2.441845815
year.cond.Std.Dev.(Intercept) 1.051889e+00 1.523719169 1.157153015
zi.(Intercept) 1.234418e-04 0.001309705 0.000402085
zi.x2 2.868578e-02 0.166378014 0.069084606
zi.x3high 8.972025e-01 1.805832900 1.272869874
我计算的间隔是否正确？为什么 zi 在 x3 中只有一个类别？
如果可能的话，我还想知道是否可以绘制这些 CIs.
谢谢！
数据如下所示：
class id year count x1 x2 x3
956 5 3002 2002 3 15.6 47.9 high
957 5 4004 2002 3 14.3 47.9 low
958 5 6021 2002 3 14.2 47.9 high
959 4 2030 2002 3 10.5 46.3 high
960 4 2031 2002 3 15.3 46.3 high
961 4 2034 2002 3 15.2 46.3 reg
x1和x2连续，x3三级分类变量（因子）
模型总结：
summary(m1)
'giveCsparse' has been deprecated; setting 'repr = "T"' for you'giveCsparse' has been deprecated; setting 'repr = "T"' for you'giveCsparse' has been deprecated; setting 'repr = "T"' for you
Family: truncated_nbinom2 ( log )
Formula: count ~ x1 + x2 + x3 + (1 | year/class)
Zero inflation: ~x2 + x3 + (1 | year/class)
Data: bd
AIC BIC logLik deviance df.resid
37359.7 37479.7 -18663.8 37327.7 13323
Random effects:
Conditional model:
Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
class:year(Intercept) 0.79701 0.8928
year (Intercept) 0.02131 0.1460
Number of obs: 13339, groups: class:year, 345; year, 15
Zero-inflation model:
Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
dpto:year (Intercept) 1.024e+02 1.012e+01
year (Intercept) 7.842e-07 8.856e-04
Number of obs: 13339, groups: class:year, 345; year, 15
Overdispersion parameter for truncated_nbinom2 family (): 1.02
Conditional model:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -1.25343 0.23081 -5.431 5.62e-08 ***
x1 -0.06433 0.01837 -3.501 0.000464 ***
x2 3.00047 0.14724 20.378 < 2e-16 ***
x3high 0.28756 0.05755 4.997 5.82e-07 ***
x3low 0.11159 0.04277 2.609 0.009083 **
x3reg 0.22669 0.05082 4.461 8.17e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Zero-inflation model:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -7.8188 0.6025 -12.977 < 2e-16 ***
x2 -2.6724 0.4484 -5.959 2.53e-09 ***
x3high 0.2413 0.1784 1.352 0.17635
x3low -0.1325 0.1134 -1.169 0.24258
x3reg -0.3806 0.1436 -2.651 0.00802 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
CI 与 broom.mixed
> broom.mixed::tidy(m1, effects="fixed", conf.int=TRUE)
# A tibble: 12 x 9
effect component term estimate std.error statistic p.value conf.low conf.high
<chr> <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
1 fixed cond (Intercept) -1.25 0.231 -5.43 5.62e- 8 -1.71 -0.801
2 fixed cond x1 -0.0643 0.0184 -3.50 4.64e- 4 -0.100 -0.0283
3 fixed cond x2 3.00 0.147 20.4 2.60e-92 2.71 3.29
4 fixed cond x3high 0.288 0.0575 5.00 5.82e- 7 0.175 0.400
5 fixed cond x3low 0.112 0.0428 2.61 9.08e- 3 0.0278 0.195
6 fixed cond x3reg 0.227 0.0508 4.46 8.17e- 6 0.127 0.326
7 fixed zi (Intercept) -9.88 1.32 -7.49 7.04e-14 -12.5 -7.30
8 fixed zi x1 0.214 0.120 1.79 7.38e- 2 -0.0206 0.448
9 fixed zi x2 -2.69 0.449 -6.00 2.01e- 9 -3.57 -1.81
10 fixed zi x3high 0.232 0.178 1.30 1.93e- 1 -0.117 0.582
11 fixed zi x3low -0.135 0.113 -1.19 2.36e- 1 -0.357 0.0878
12 fixed zi x4reg -0.382 0.144 -2.66 7.74e- 3 -0.664 -0.101
tl;dr 据我所知这是 confint.glmmTMB 中的错误（可能在内部函数 glmmTMB:::getParms 中）。与此同时，broom.mixed::tidy(m1, effects="fixed") 应该做你想做的事。 （现在 GitHub 上的开发版本正在进行修复，应该会在某个时候到达 CRAN 吗？很快...）
可重现的例子：
设置数据
set.seed(101)
n <- 1e3
bd <- data.frame(
year=factor(sample(2002:2018, size=n, replace=TRUE)),
class=factor(sample(1:20, size=n, replace=TRUE)),
x1 = rnorm(n),
x2 = rnorm(n),
x3 = factor(sample(c("low","reg","high"), size=n, replace=TRUE),
levels=c("low","reg","high")),
count = rnbinom(n, mu = 3, size=1))
适合
library(glmmTMB)
m1 <- glmmTMB(count~x1+x2+x3+(1|year/class),
data = bd, zi = ~x2+x3+(1|year/class), family = truncated_nbinom2,
)
置信区间
confint(m1, "beta_") ## wrong/ incomplete
broom.mixed::tidy(m1, effects="fixed", conf.int=TRUE) ## correct
您可能需要考虑您想要哪种置信区间：
- Wald CI（默认）的计算速度要快得多，并且只要 (1) 您的数据集很大并且 (2) 您没有在 log/logit 规模上估计任何参数，通常就可以了靠近边界
- 似然概况 CI 更准确但速度更慢
我想在混合模型、零膨胀负二项式和障碍模型中计算 CI。我的障碍模型代码如下所示（x1，x2 连续，x3 分类）：
m1 <- glmmTMB(count~x1+x2+x3+(1|year/class),
data = bd, zi = ~x2+x3+(1|year/class), family = truncated_nbinom2,
)
我使用了 confint，得到了这些结果：
ci <- confint(m1,parm="beta_")
ci
2.5 % 97.5 % Estimate
cond.(Intercept) 1.816255e-01 0.448860094 0.285524861
cond.x1 9.045278e-01 0.972083366 0.937697401
cond.x2 1.505770e+01 26.817439186 20.094998772
cond.x3high 1.190972e+00 1.492335046 1.333164894
cond.x3low 1.028147e+00 1.215828654 1.118056377
cond.x3reg 1.135515e+00 1.385833853 1.254445909
class:year.cond.Std.Dev.(Intercept)2.256324e+00 2.662976154 2.441845815
year.cond.Std.Dev.(Intercept) 1.051889e+00 1.523719169 1.157153015
zi.(Intercept) 1.234418e-04 0.001309705 0.000402085
zi.x2 2.868578e-02 0.166378014 0.069084606
zi.x3high 8.972025e-01 1.805832900 1.272869874
我计算的间隔是否正确？为什么 zi 在 x3 中只有一个类别？ 如果可能的话，我还想知道是否可以绘制这些 CIs.
谢谢！
数据如下所示：
class id year count x1 x2 x3
956 5 3002 2002 3 15.6 47.9 high
957 5 4004 2002 3 14.3 47.9 low
958 5 6021 2002 3 14.2 47.9 high
959 4 2030 2002 3 10.5 46.3 high
960 4 2031 2002 3 15.3 46.3 high
961 4 2034 2002 3 15.2 46.3 reg
x1和x2连续，x3三级分类变量（因子）
模型总结：
summary(m1)
'giveCsparse' has been deprecated; setting 'repr = "T"' for you'giveCsparse' has been deprecated; setting 'repr = "T"' for you'giveCsparse' has been deprecated; setting 'repr = "T"' for you
Family: truncated_nbinom2 ( log )
Formula: count ~ x1 + x2 + x3 + (1 | year/class)
Zero inflation: ~x2 + x3 + (1 | year/class)
Data: bd
AIC BIC logLik deviance df.resid
37359.7 37479.7 -18663.8 37327.7 13323
Random effects:
Conditional model:
Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
class:year(Intercept) 0.79701 0.8928
year (Intercept) 0.02131 0.1460
Number of obs: 13339, groups: class:year, 345; year, 15
Zero-inflation model:
Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
dpto:year (Intercept) 1.024e+02 1.012e+01
year (Intercept) 7.842e-07 8.856e-04
Number of obs: 13339, groups: class:year, 345; year, 15
Overdispersion parameter for truncated_nbinom2 family (): 1.02
Conditional model:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -1.25343 0.23081 -5.431 5.62e-08 ***
x1 -0.06433 0.01837 -3.501 0.000464 ***
x2 3.00047 0.14724 20.378 < 2e-16 ***
x3high 0.28756 0.05755 4.997 5.82e-07 ***
x3low 0.11159 0.04277 2.609 0.009083 **
x3reg 0.22669 0.05082 4.461 8.17e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Zero-inflation model:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -7.8188 0.6025 -12.977 < 2e-16 ***
x2 -2.6724 0.4484 -5.959 2.53e-09 ***
x3high 0.2413 0.1784 1.352 0.17635
x3low -0.1325 0.1134 -1.169 0.24258
x3reg -0.3806 0.1436 -2.651 0.00802 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
CI 与 broom.mixed
> broom.mixed::tidy(m1, effects="fixed", conf.int=TRUE)
# A tibble: 12 x 9
effect component term estimate std.error statistic p.value conf.low conf.high
<chr> <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
1 fixed cond (Intercept) -1.25 0.231 -5.43 5.62e- 8 -1.71 -0.801
2 fixed cond x1 -0.0643 0.0184 -3.50 4.64e- 4 -0.100 -0.0283
3 fixed cond x2 3.00 0.147 20.4 2.60e-92 2.71 3.29
4 fixed cond x3high 0.288 0.0575 5.00 5.82e- 7 0.175 0.400
5 fixed cond x3low 0.112 0.0428 2.61 9.08e- 3 0.0278 0.195
6 fixed cond x3reg 0.227 0.0508 4.46 8.17e- 6 0.127 0.326
7 fixed zi (Intercept) -9.88 1.32 -7.49 7.04e-14 -12.5 -7.30
8 fixed zi x1 0.214 0.120 1.79 7.38e- 2 -0.0206 0.448
9 fixed zi x2 -2.69 0.449 -6.00 2.01e- 9 -3.57 -1.81
10 fixed zi x3high 0.232 0.178 1.30 1.93e- 1 -0.117 0.582
11 fixed zi x3low -0.135 0.113 -1.19 2.36e- 1 -0.357 0.0878
12 fixed zi x4reg -0.382 0.144 -2.66 7.74e- 3 -0.664 -0.101
tl;dr 据我所知这是 confint.glmmTMB 中的错误（可能在内部函数 glmmTMB:::getParms 中）。与此同时，broom.mixed::tidy(m1, effects="fixed") 应该做你想做的事。 （现在 GitHub 上的开发版本正在进行修复，应该会在某个时候到达 CRAN 吗？很快...）
可重现的例子：
设置数据
set.seed(101)
n <- 1e3
bd <- data.frame(
year=factor(sample(2002:2018, size=n, replace=TRUE)),
class=factor(sample(1:20, size=n, replace=TRUE)),
x1 = rnorm(n),
x2 = rnorm(n),
x3 = factor(sample(c("low","reg","high"), size=n, replace=TRUE),
levels=c("low","reg","high")),
count = rnbinom(n, mu = 3, size=1))
适合
library(glmmTMB)
m1 <- glmmTMB(count~x1+x2+x3+(1|year/class),
data = bd, zi = ~x2+x3+(1|year/class), family = truncated_nbinom2,
)
置信区间
confint(m1, "beta_") ## wrong/ incomplete
broom.mixed::tidy(m1, effects="fixed", conf.int=TRUE) ## correct
您可能需要考虑您想要哪种置信区间：
- Wald CI（默认）的计算速度要快得多，并且只要 (1) 您的数据集很大并且 (2) 您没有在 log/logit 规模上估计任何参数，通常就可以了靠近边界
- 似然概况 CI 更准确但速度更慢