绘制时间序列平滑置信区间

Question

我正在处理这个时间序列，我绘制了平滑均值，但出于某种原因，我无法让置信区域出现。我尝试在 geom_smooth 命令上使用 level=0.95，但仍然没有任何反应。

数据=https://github.com/gonzalodqa/timeseries

months_order <- c(7:12,1:6)

dates <- make_datetime(c(rep(3,6), rep(4,6)), months_order)

t %>%
  
  mutate(datetime = make_datetime(year, month, day, hour, minute, second)) %>%

  filter(datetime >= make_datetime(2018,7), datetime < make_datetime(2020,7)) %>%
  
  group_by(year, month) %>%
  mutate(dummy = month(datetime) == 7 & datetime == min(datetime)) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  mutate(dummy = cumsum(dummy)) %>%
  
  group_by(dummy) %>%
  mutate(datetime = datetime - years(year - 4) - years(month>=7),
         years = paste(unique(year), collapse = " / ")) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  
  ggplot() +
  geom_line(aes(x = datetime, y = T42, colour = years)) +
  scale_x_datetime(breaks = dates, labels = month.abb[months_order]) +
  labs(colour = "Year")+geom_smooth(aes(x=datetime,y=T42),`level=0.95,color="black")+theme_light()+
  xlab("Time (Months)")+ylab("Temperature (°C)")+geom_hline(yintercept=5, linetype="dashed", color 
  = "black",lwd=1)+
  scale_color_manual(values=c("grey","grey","red"))

我没有在 geom_smooth() 上指定任何公式我尝试 google 答案，也在此处，但我似乎找不到解决方案

感谢您的任何意见

Answer 1

我想是因为它的颜色，而且CI非常窄。通过添加 lwd = 0.5, fill = "steelblue"，我几乎找不到 CI 的存在。仔细看看，你可能会看到蓝色的东西。

t %>%
  
  mutate(datetime = make_datetime(year, month, day, hour, minute, second)) %>%
  
  filter(datetime >= make_datetime(2018,7), datetime < make_datetime(2020,7)) %>%
  
  group_by(year, month) %>%
  mutate(dummy = month(datetime) == 7 & datetime == min(datetime)) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  mutate(dummy = cumsum(dummy)) %>%
  
  group_by(dummy) %>%
  mutate(datetime = datetime - years(year - 4) - years(month>=7),
         years = paste(unique(year), collapse = " / ")) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  
  ggplot() +
  geom_line(aes(x = datetime, y = T42, colour = years)) +
  scale_x_datetime(breaks = dates, labels = month.abb[months_order]) +
  labs(colour = "Year")+geom_smooth(aes(x=datetime,y=T42),level=0.95,color="black", lwd = 0.5, fill = "steelblue")+theme_light()+
  xlab("Time (Months)")+ylab("Temperature (°C)")+geom_hline(yintercept=5, linetype="dashed", color 
                                                            = "black",lwd=1)+
  scale_color_manual(values=c("grey","grey","red"))

绘制时间序列平滑置信区间

Plot time-series smooth confident interval

r

time-series

smoothing