即使概率相等，我的数据仍呈下降趋势
My Data keeps trending downwards even though it's equal probabilities
所以我想就此寻求一些帮助。请注意，我是 python 的新手，所以我的以下代码不会是最干净的，我会很乐意并且会喜欢你的提示和建议如何让它变得更好，但是 我的主要问题是关于下面的代码。
如果你要 运行 它，你可以 运行 每“分钟”一年（这就是我一直在做的），并根据每分钟生成一个“值”关于概率。
但不知为什么，到最后它一直呈下降趋势，我也不知道为什么。我在工作时 运行 100 个文件，我只是检查了它们，然后再次（我已经测试了多次），大多数文件都呈下降趋势。
即我从 1000 开始，然后以更低的价格结束。这对我来说没有意义，因为价值上升、下降或保持不变的概率是相等的。
- 请注意，我现在将其设置为
up_or_down_decision = random.choices(up_or_down, weights=(33,33,33), k=1)，但之前我将其设置为 up_or_down_decision = random.choice(up_or_down)，我没有任何区别
请有人能帮我一下。我希望它生成很多看起来完全不同并且行为完全不同的文件。
import random
import os
import time
def convert_time(total_run_time):
return time.strftime('%H:%M:%S', time.gmtime(total_run_time))
def choice_years():
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to run for: {range_years} Year(s)\n')
f.write(f'You will generate data for: {str(iteration_total)} iterations\n')
f.close()
print(f'You will generate {str(iteration_total)} entries of data.')
def choice_months():
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to run for: {range_months} Month(s)\n')
f.write(f'You will generate data for: {str(iteration_total)} iterations\n')
f.close()
print(f'You will generate {str(iteration_total)} entries of data.')
def choice_days():
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to run for: {range_days} Day(s)\n')
f.write(f'You will generate data for: {str(iteration_total)} iterations\n')
f.close()
print(f'You will generate {str(iteration_total)} entries of data.')
def choice_hours():
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to run for: {range_hours} Hour(s)\n')
f.write(f'You will generate data for: {str(iteration_total)} iterations\n')
f.close()
print(f'You will generate {str(iteration_total)} entries of data.')
# Name_Number of Files_Time Geration_Number of Y/M/D/H_Every how many minutes
folder = 'Dummy_Data_4.csv'
os.mkdir(folder)
FILE_INPUT = input('Please choose the name of the .txt file you want to write to:\n')
FILE_NUMBER = int(input('\nHow many files do you want to generate?:\n'))
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'w')
f.write(f'You chose to generate {str(FILE_NUMBER)} file(s)\n')
f.close()
iteration = input('\nEvery how many minutes do you want data?:\n')
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to generate data every: {iteration} minute(s)\n')
f.close()
if iteration.isdigit():
time_duration = input('\nDo you want to run it for Years, Months, Days, or Hours?:\n1. Years\n2. Months\n3. Days\n4. Hours\n')
if time_duration == '1' or time_duration == 'Years' or time_duration == '1. Years' or time_duration == 'Y' or time_duration == 'years' or time_duration == '1. years' or time_duration == 'y':
print('\nYou chose Years')
range_years = input('How many Years? Please input an integer:\n')
iteration_total = int((int(range_years) * 525600)/int(iteration))
choice_years()
elif time_duration == '2' or time_duration == 'Months' or time_duration == '2. Months' or time_duration == 'M' or time_duration == 'months' or time_duration == '2. months' or time_duration == 'm':
print('\nYou chose Months')
range_months = input('How many Months? Please input an integer (Note: The average number of days for a month will be taken as 30):\n')
iteration_total = int((int(range_months) * 43200)/int(iteration))
choice_months()
elif time_duration == '3' or time_duration == 'Days' or time_duration == '3. Days' or time_duration == 'D' or time_duration == 'days' or time_duration == '3. days' or time_duration == 'd':
print('\nYou chose Days')
range_days = input('How many Days? Please input an integer:\n')
iteration_total = int((int(range_days) * 1440)/int(iteration))
choice_days()
elif time_duration == '4' or time_duration == 'Hours' or time_duration == '4. Hours' or time_duration == 'H' or time_duration == 'hours' or time_duration == '4. hours' or time_duration == 'h':
print('\nYou chose Hours')
range_hours = input('How many Hours? Please input an integer:\n')
iteration_total = int((int(range_hours) * 60)/int(iteration))
choice_hours()
else:
print('Your choice is invalid, goodbye')
exit()
else:
print('Your input was incorrect, goodbye')
exit()
starting_price = float(input('\nWhat is your starting price?:\n'))
new_price = float('%.2f' % starting_price)
print('Your starting price is ' + 'R%.2f' % starting_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write('Your starting price is: ' + 'R%.2f' % starting_price + '\n' + '\n')
f.close()
i = 1
j = 1
kick_off_time = time.time()
while j <= FILE_NUMBER:
NAME_WITHOUT_EXTENSION = FILE_INPUT + '_' + str(j)
CSV_FILE_WRITE = FILE_INPUT + '_' + str(j) + '.csv'
print(CSV_FILE_WRITE)
i = 1
j += 1
new_price = float('%.2f' % starting_price)
start_time = time.time()
while i <= iteration_total:
up_or_down = ['up', 'down', 'none']
up_or_down_decision = random.choices(up_or_down, weights=(33,33,33), k=1)
if up_or_down_decision[0] == 'up':
change_list = [0.001, 0.002, 0.00005, 0.01, 0.003]
change_decision = random.choice(change_list)
added_price = new_price * change_decision
new_price = new_price + added_price
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
elif up_or_down_decision[0] == 'down':
change_list = [0.001, 0.002, 0.00005, 0.01, 0.003]
change_decision = random.choice(change_list)
subtracted_price = new_price * change_decision
new_price = new_price - subtracted_price
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
elif up_or_down_decision[0] == 'none':
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
end_time = time.time()
iteration_time = float('%.2f' % (end_time - start_time))
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
end_time = time.time()
iteration_time = '%.5f' % float(end_time - start_time)
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'{CSV_FILE_WRITE}: {iteration_time} seconds \n')
f.close()
termination_time = time.time()
total_run_time = termination_time - kick_off_time
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'Total Run Time: {convert_time(total_run_time)} seconds')
f.close()
您从之前的总和中添加或减去百分比。每个百分比都可以，加减都可以。
想想这里发生了什么。您首先将 1% 加到 1000，然后从结果中减去 1%，并一遍又一遍地重复几次。你的最终结果将小于 1000。你自己试试：
def tryit():
print("Ten rounds, substracting first")
price = 1000
for x in range(10):
if x%2 == 0:
price -= price*0.01
else:
price += price*0.01
print(price)
print("Ten rounds, adding first")
price = 1000
for x in range(10):
if x%2 == 0:
price += price*0.01
else:
price -= price*0.01
print(price)
tryit()
即使您一遍又一遍地加减相同的百分比，您的最终价格仍低于 1000。
这是为什么？
- 第一轮：1000 * 0.01 -> 加10 -> 新价格= 1010
- 第二轮：1010 * 0.01 -> 减去10.1 -> 新价= 999.90
如果我们从减法开始，我们以同样的效果结束：
- 第一轮：1000 * 0.01 -> 减10 -> 新价= 990
- 第二轮：990 * 0.01 -> 加9.9 -> 新价= 999.9
即使您在那里添加一些随机元素，也会出现这种行为。
那么如何保持这种平衡呢？不要加减，要乘除。
def thisworks():
print("Ten rounds, substracting first")
price = 1000
for x in range(10):
if x%2 == 0:
price = price*1.01
else:
price = price/1.01
print(price)
print("Ten rounds, adding first")
price = 1000
for x in range(10):
if x%2 == 0:
price = price/1.01
else:
price = price*1.01
print(price)
thisworks()
并将其放入您的代码中（只是其中的一部分）：
while i <= iteration_total:
up_or_down = ['up', 'down', 'none']
up_or_down_decision = random.choices(up_or_down, weights=(33,33,33), k=1)
if up_or_down_decision[0] == 'up':
change_list = [0.001, 0.002, 0.00005, 0.01, 0.003]
change_decision = random.choice(change_list)
# XXX Change here
# added_price = new_price * change_decision
# new_price = new_price + added_price
new_price = new_price * (1+change_decision)
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
elif up_or_down_decision[0] == 'down':
change_list = [0.001, 0.002, 0.00005, 0.01, 0.003]
change_decision = random.choice(change_list)
# XXX Change here
# subtracted_price = new_price * change_decision
# new_price = new_price - subtracted_price
new_price = new_price / (1+change_decision)
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
所以我想就此寻求一些帮助。请注意，我是 python 的新手，所以我的以下代码不会是最干净的，我会很乐意并且会喜欢你的提示和建议如何让它变得更好，但是 我的主要问题是关于下面的代码。
如果你要 运行 它，你可以 运行 每“分钟”一年（这就是我一直在做的），并根据每分钟生成一个“值”关于概率。
但不知为什么，到最后它一直呈下降趋势，我也不知道为什么。我在工作时 运行 100 个文件，我只是检查了它们，然后再次（我已经测试了多次），大多数文件都呈下降趋势。
即我从 1000 开始，然后以更低的价格结束。这对我来说没有意义，因为价值上升、下降或保持不变的概率是相等的。
- 请注意，我现在将其设置为
up_or_down_decision = random.choices(up_or_down, weights=(33,33,33), k=1)，但之前我将其设置为up_or_down_decision = random.choice(up_or_down)，我没有任何区别
请有人能帮我一下。我希望它生成很多看起来完全不同并且行为完全不同的文件。
import random
import os
import time
def convert_time(total_run_time):
return time.strftime('%H:%M:%S', time.gmtime(total_run_time))
def choice_years():
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to run for: {range_years} Year(s)\n')
f.write(f'You will generate data for: {str(iteration_total)} iterations\n')
f.close()
print(f'You will generate {str(iteration_total)} entries of data.')
def choice_months():
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to run for: {range_months} Month(s)\n')
f.write(f'You will generate data for: {str(iteration_total)} iterations\n')
f.close()
print(f'You will generate {str(iteration_total)} entries of data.')
def choice_days():
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to run for: {range_days} Day(s)\n')
f.write(f'You will generate data for: {str(iteration_total)} iterations\n')
f.close()
print(f'You will generate {str(iteration_total)} entries of data.')
def choice_hours():
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to run for: {range_hours} Hour(s)\n')
f.write(f'You will generate data for: {str(iteration_total)} iterations\n')
f.close()
print(f'You will generate {str(iteration_total)} entries of data.')
# Name_Number of Files_Time Geration_Number of Y/M/D/H_Every how many minutes
folder = 'Dummy_Data_4.csv'
os.mkdir(folder)
FILE_INPUT = input('Please choose the name of the .txt file you want to write to:\n')
FILE_NUMBER = int(input('\nHow many files do you want to generate?:\n'))
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'w')
f.write(f'You chose to generate {str(FILE_NUMBER)} file(s)\n')
f.close()
iteration = input('\nEvery how many minutes do you want data?:\n')
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'You chose to generate data every: {iteration} minute(s)\n')
f.close()
if iteration.isdigit():
time_duration = input('\nDo you want to run it for Years, Months, Days, or Hours?:\n1. Years\n2. Months\n3. Days\n4. Hours\n')
if time_duration == '1' or time_duration == 'Years' or time_duration == '1. Years' or time_duration == 'Y' or time_duration == 'years' or time_duration == '1. years' or time_duration == 'y':
print('\nYou chose Years')
range_years = input('How many Years? Please input an integer:\n')
iteration_total = int((int(range_years) * 525600)/int(iteration))
choice_years()
elif time_duration == '2' or time_duration == 'Months' or time_duration == '2. Months' or time_duration == 'M' or time_duration == 'months' or time_duration == '2. months' or time_duration == 'm':
print('\nYou chose Months')
range_months = input('How many Months? Please input an integer (Note: The average number of days for a month will be taken as 30):\n')
iteration_total = int((int(range_months) * 43200)/int(iteration))
choice_months()
elif time_duration == '3' or time_duration == 'Days' or time_duration == '3. Days' or time_duration == 'D' or time_duration == 'days' or time_duration == '3. days' or time_duration == 'd':
print('\nYou chose Days')
range_days = input('How many Days? Please input an integer:\n')
iteration_total = int((int(range_days) * 1440)/int(iteration))
choice_days()
elif time_duration == '4' or time_duration == 'Hours' or time_duration == '4. Hours' or time_duration == 'H' or time_duration == 'hours' or time_duration == '4. hours' or time_duration == 'h':
print('\nYou chose Hours')
range_hours = input('How many Hours? Please input an integer:\n')
iteration_total = int((int(range_hours) * 60)/int(iteration))
choice_hours()
else:
print('Your choice is invalid, goodbye')
exit()
else:
print('Your input was incorrect, goodbye')
exit()
starting_price = float(input('\nWhat is your starting price?:\n'))
new_price = float('%.2f' % starting_price)
print('Your starting price is ' + 'R%.2f' % starting_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write('Your starting price is: ' + 'R%.2f' % starting_price + '\n' + '\n')
f.close()
i = 1
j = 1
kick_off_time = time.time()
while j <= FILE_NUMBER:
NAME_WITHOUT_EXTENSION = FILE_INPUT + '_' + str(j)
CSV_FILE_WRITE = FILE_INPUT + '_' + str(j) + '.csv'
print(CSV_FILE_WRITE)
i = 1
j += 1
new_price = float('%.2f' % starting_price)
start_time = time.time()
while i <= iteration_total:
up_or_down = ['up', 'down', 'none']
up_or_down_decision = random.choices(up_or_down, weights=(33,33,33), k=1)
if up_or_down_decision[0] == 'up':
change_list = [0.001, 0.002, 0.00005, 0.01, 0.003]
change_decision = random.choice(change_list)
added_price = new_price * change_decision
new_price = new_price + added_price
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
elif up_or_down_decision[0] == 'down':
change_list = [0.001, 0.002, 0.00005, 0.01, 0.003]
change_decision = random.choice(change_list)
subtracted_price = new_price * change_decision
new_price = new_price - subtracted_price
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
elif up_or_down_decision[0] == 'none':
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
end_time = time.time()
iteration_time = float('%.2f' % (end_time - start_time))
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
end_time = time.time()
iteration_time = '%.5f' % float(end_time - start_time)
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'{CSV_FILE_WRITE}: {iteration_time} seconds \n')
f.close()
termination_time = time.time()
total_run_time = termination_time - kick_off_time
f = open(f'./{folder}/Details.txt', 'a')
f.write(f'Total Run Time: {convert_time(total_run_time)} seconds')
f.close()
您从之前的总和中添加或减去百分比。每个百分比都可以，加减都可以。
想想这里发生了什么。您首先将 1% 加到 1000，然后从结果中减去 1%，并一遍又一遍地重复几次。你的最终结果将小于 1000。你自己试试：
def tryit():
print("Ten rounds, substracting first")
price = 1000
for x in range(10):
if x%2 == 0:
price -= price*0.01
else:
price += price*0.01
print(price)
print("Ten rounds, adding first")
price = 1000
for x in range(10):
if x%2 == 0:
price += price*0.01
else:
price -= price*0.01
print(price)
tryit()
即使您一遍又一遍地加减相同的百分比，您的最终价格仍低于 1000。
这是为什么？
- 第一轮：1000 * 0.01 -> 加10 -> 新价格= 1010
- 第二轮：1010 * 0.01 -> 减去10.1 -> 新价= 999.90
如果我们从减法开始，我们以同样的效果结束：
- 第一轮：1000 * 0.01 -> 减10 -> 新价= 990
- 第二轮：990 * 0.01 -> 加9.9 -> 新价= 999.9
即使您在那里添加一些随机元素，也会出现这种行为。
那么如何保持这种平衡呢？不要加减，要乘除。
def thisworks():
print("Ten rounds, substracting first")
price = 1000
for x in range(10):
if x%2 == 0:
price = price*1.01
else:
price = price/1.01
print(price)
print("Ten rounds, adding first")
price = 1000
for x in range(10):
if x%2 == 0:
price = price/1.01
else:
price = price*1.01
print(price)
thisworks()
并将其放入您的代码中（只是其中的一部分）：
while i <= iteration_total:
up_or_down = ['up', 'down', 'none']
up_or_down_decision = random.choices(up_or_down, weights=(33,33,33), k=1)
if up_or_down_decision[0] == 'up':
change_list = [0.001, 0.002, 0.00005, 0.01, 0.003]
change_decision = random.choice(change_list)
# XXX Change here
# added_price = new_price * change_decision
# new_price = new_price + added_price
new_price = new_price * (1+change_decision)
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1
elif up_or_down_decision[0] == 'down':
change_list = [0.001, 0.002, 0.00005, 0.01, 0.003]
change_decision = random.choice(change_list)
# XXX Change here
# subtracted_price = new_price * change_decision
# new_price = new_price - subtracted_price
new_price = new_price / (1+change_decision)
formatted_new_price = float('%.2f' % new_price)
f = open(f'./{folder}/' + CSV_FILE_WRITE, 'a')
f.write(f'{str(i)},{str(formatted_new_price)} \n')
f.close()
i += 1